美国保尔森就全球经济讲话060913.docx

美国保尔森就全球经济讲话060913.docx

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美国保尔森就全球经济讲话060913

RemarksbyTreasurySecretary

HenryM.Paulson

ontheInternationalEconomy

TreasuryDepartmentCashRoom

Washington,D.C.

Oneweekfromtoday,IwillbeinChinatodiscusstheeconomicrelationshipbetweenourtwonations. TodayIwillspeakaboutChina,andmorebroadlyabouttheinternationaleconomicsystem.  

TheprosperityoftheUnitedStatesandChinaistiedtogetherintheglobaleconomy,andhowweworktogetheronahostofbilateralandmultilateralissueswillhaveasignificantimpactonthehealthoftheglobaleconomy.  

HalfofallglobaleconomicgrowthinthelastfiveyearshascomefromtheUnitedStatesandChina,andourtwoeconomieswillcontinuetobethedriversofgrowthinthefuture.

YetmanyviewthegrowthofChinaanditsincreasingimportanceastheclearestandmosttangiblethreatofglobalization. ThosewhowelcomeChina'sgrowthandintegrationintotheworldeconomy,asIdo,shouldconfrontthisargumentdirectly.

Ihavespent32yearsworkinginfinancialmarkets,muchofthattimeineconomiesaroundtheglobe,andIhavelearnedanumberofimportantlessons. Onelessonisthatthosenationsthatreformtheireconomiesandopenthemselvestocompetitionbenefittheircitizensgreatly. Theyhavebetterjobs,improvedlivingstandards,andgreateropportunity.

Atthesametime,thosenationsthattrytoclosethemselvesofffromcompetition,hinderfreemarkets,andfailtoinvestintheirpeople,simplygetleftbehind.  

Thebenefitsofcompetitionextendwellbeyondmanufacturedgoodsandagriculturalproducts. Greaterefficienciesandadvancedtechnologiesinanumberofserviceshaveamultipliereffect,strengtheningtheentireeconomy. 

OneareawhereIhavepersonalexperienceisinfinancialserviceswhereIamastrongadvocateofopeningupthedomesticcapitalmarketsandfinancialsystemsofourtradingpartnerstointernationalcompetition. Healthycapitalmarketsareabsolutelycriticaltoanynation'slong-termeconomicsuccess. AndIdon'tknowofasingleexampleofanationwhichhasastrongfinancialsystemandstrongcapitalmarketsthathasnotopeneditselfuptoforeigncompetition.  

TheU.S.experienceillustratesthebenefitsofopennessandcompetition.  Oureconomyisbyfartheworld'sstrongestbecauseitisbuiltonopenness?

opennesstopeopleofallnationalities,opennesstonewideas,opennesstoinvestment,andopennesstocompetition. Itisamodelthatothersstrivetoemulate. Andweaimtokeepitthatway.  

OurprovensuccesshasallowedustoeffectivelyadvocatefreetradeandopenmarketshereintheUnitedStatesandaroundtheworld.

AgoodillustrationofthebenefitsofcompetitionthroughtradecanbefoundinAsia. Thirtyyearsago,economistandauthor,GunnarMyrdal,usedAsiaasametaphorforglobalpoverty. ButAsiannationsopenedtheirmarketsandallowedtheirbusinessestocompeteintheworldmarketplace. WhatMyrdalreferredtoastheAsianDramaisnowtheAsianmiracle,withhundredsofmillionsofpeoplefreedfrompoverty.

Vietnam,whereIattendedtheAPECmeetingslastweek,isacaseinpoint. In1986,theVietnameselaunchedtheDoiMoiprogramofeconomicreformsthatliberalizedVietnam'seconomyandbegantoopenittoforeigntradeandinvestment. Vietnam'stradehassincegrownby20-30%peryear,andthecountryhasbeensecondonlytoChinainitsrateofrealGDPgrowth. WhenIvisitedVietnam,Ispoketoitsleaders,butIalsospenttimewithyoungentrepreneursandstudents. Theyareeagertojointheglobaleconomyandreplicatethesuccessofothersintheregion. 

WemustappreciateandreinforceVietnam'scommitmenttocontinuingeconomicreform,andtherules-basedtradingsystem. IwillworkcloselywiththePresident,mycolleaguesintheAdministration,andCongresstobringVietnamintotheWorldTradeOrganization,becauseitisintheinterestoftheUnitedStatesandVietnam.

Tradeisnotazero-sumgame. RapideconomicgrowthinVietnamandothernationsaroundtheworldbenefitsAmericansbyaddingtothegrowthoftheglobaleconomy,andovertime,creatinggreaterdemandforourproductsandmorejobsforourworkers. 

Ourprosperityislinkedtothestrengthofforeigneconomies. Andweareadverselyaffectedbytheireconomicdeclinesandfinancialshocks. TheAsianFinancialCrisisof1997mayhavereducedgrowthbyasmuchas1percentagepointintheUnitedStatesandEurope. Financialmarketsalsoareglobal. TheRussiandefaultin1998ledtoasuddenwideningincreditspreadsandafinancialshockwhichcontributedtothefailureofthehedgefund,LongTermCapitalManagement,intheUnitedStates. 

Therearenoislandsofeconomicstabilityintoday'sworld. Globalizationandinterdependenceareheretostay. Nonationcanturnbacktheclock. 

Intoday'sinterdependentworld,U.S.exportsandU.S.employmentopportunitiesareaffectedbyhowwellourmajortradingpartnersaredoing. Whenanymajoreconomydoeswell,itsgrowthbenefitstheoverallglobaleconomy. Whenamajoreconomyfalters,itisadragonglobalgrowth.  WeseethisillustratedbyJapan,theworld'ssecondlargesteconomy,whichstruggledforadecadewithsluggishgrowthanddeflation. 

Japan'seconomicreformsoverthepastfiveyearshaveproducedaneconomicrecovery,andweallhavebenefitedfromtheboosttoglobalgrowthandtheincreaseinJapaneseimportdemand.Japan'sreformsarenotcomplete,andtheymustcontinue. However,thesestepsdemonstratetheimportanceofgrowth-enhancingreformsinmajoreconomiesasaneffectivewaytoincreasejobsintheUnitedStatesandprosperityglobally.

Economicintegrationmakeseconomiesmoreefficient,moreproductive,andmorecompetitive. Integrationgivesbusinessesgreateraccesstomarketsaroundtheworld,andincreasestheirabilitytoachieveeconomiesofscale. Globalmarketsgiveconsumersmorechoices. Andglobalcompetitionhelpsreducethepricesofgoodsandservices?

arealbenefittothosewithlowerincomes,whetherintheUnitedStatesorabroad.

Enhancedcompetitionfromglobalintegrationgreatlybenefitstheinternationaleconomicsystem,particularlytheUnitedStates. 

TheInstituteforInternationalEconomicshasestimatedthattheintegrationoftheglobaleconomygeneratesaneconomicgainof$1trilliontotheU.S.economy,everyyear. AndIknowfrommypreviouslifeataninvestmentbankthatglobaleconomicintegrationalsoleadstoalowercostofcapital,moreopportunitiesforinvestorstoachievehigherreturns,andmorestablelong-termeconomicgrowth. Thisisthefoundationofprosperity,jobs,andopportunity. 

Yet,despitethebenefitsofcompetitionandtheexpansionofworldtrade,therearemanywhoopposewhatiscommonlyknowas"globalization".    Ironically,thisprotectionistsentimentcomesfrommanyquartersinthosenations?

includingintheUnitedStatesandChina?

whichhavebenefitedthemostfromtheeconomicgrowthgeneratedbyglobalcompetition. 

Thiswidespreadandgrowingresistanceisnotsurprising,becausethebenefitsofcompetition,whilesignificant,arenotspreadevenlyandcompetitioncancreatelosersaswellaswinners.

Theshort-termproblemsaremoreimmediatelyvisibleintheformofjoblossesthatareveryrealandpainful.  

Protectionistpoliciesdonotworkandthecollateraldamagefromthesepoliciesishigh. Byclosingoffcompetitionandblockingtheforcesofchange,protectionismreducesthelossesofthepresentbysacrificingtheopportunitiesofthefuture.  Jobssavedintheshorttermjobareoff-setbymorejoblossesandalowerstandardoflivinginthefuture.

Ibelieveitistheresponsibilityofallnationstosearchforwaystomoderateincomedisparitiesandhelpthosewholosetheirjobstointernationalcompetition.  WeinAmericamustthinkcreativelyabouthowtoassistthosewhofallbehind. AsthePresidenthasrepeatedlyemphasized,themosteffectivemethodforgeneratingnew,high-qualityjobs,andhigherlivingstandards,istodeveloptheskillsandthetechnologiesthatpromoteeconomiccompetitiveness.Thismeanshelpingpeopleofallagespursuefirstrateeducationandtrainingopportunities. 

BecauseIcaredeeplyaboutthecompetitivenessoftheU.S.economyIwillbeanoutspokenadvocateformaintaining?

andextending?

freeandfairtrade. TheUnitedStateswantsopenmarkets. Wewelcomeforeigninvestment. Andweseekpartnerstojoinusinadvancingaglobalagendathatwillhelprealizethebenefitsofeconomicliberalizationandcompetition. Wewillnotheedthesirensongsofprotectionismandisolationism.

WerecognizehowimportantitistoworkwithourmajortradingpartnerstorevivetheDoharoundoftradenegotiations. AndU.S.TradeRepresentativeSusanSchwabandothersarelookingforcreativewaystodojustthat.

Tradenegotiationsarenevereasy. ButtheDoharoundisjusttooimportanttoletslipaway. Wehavebeforeusanhistoricopportunityfortheinternationalcommunitytojointogethertogenerateeconomicgrowth,sparkdevelopment,andraiselivingstandardsacrosstheworldlikenootheraction. 

Thestakesarehuge. Andtheytranscendthepurelyeconomic.  Closereconomictiesbetweennationshelppromoteinternationalpeaceandprosperitybycreatingcommoninterestsandraisingthecostsofconflict. Infact,thegreatestthreattodayisnotfromconflictbetweenstates,butfrominstabilitywithinstates,andfromthosestates,likeNorthKoreaandIran,whicharenotpreparedtoabidebyinternationalstandardsofconduct,includingWMDproliferationandterrorism. 

Itisalsotruethatthehopeandopportunitywhichcancomefrombroad-basedeconomicprogressca