英文文献翻译.docx

英文文献翻译.docx

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英文文献翻译

AssessingtheBenefitstoDevelopingCountriesofLiberalisationinServicesTrade

JohnWhalley

TheUniversityofWesternOntario

1.INTRODUCTION

a.Background

Thispaperassessesthepresentstateofquantitativeliteraturewhichseekstoevaluatethepotentialimpactswhichwouldfollowfromglobalservicestradeliberalisationasitrelatestodevelopingcountries.Itisimportanttoemphasizethatwhatarefrequentlyreferredtoasdevelopingcountriesarethemselvesalsoaheterogeneousgroupofcountries.TheyspanrapidlygrowingeconomiesinAsia,negativegrowtheconomies（inGDP/capita）inAfrica,middleincomeandverypoorcountries,smallandlarge,landlockedandoceanaccess;heavilyregulatedandrecentlyliberalised.Ipreferthetermpoorercountries,andusethisinterchangeablywiththetermdevelopingcountriesinthetext.Muchoftheliteratureatissueisrelativelyrecent,andisscatteredinworkingpapersandotherlessaccessiblesources.Policymakersclearlyneedhelpinunravelingthisattimesconfusingandfragmentarypictureofwhattheresearchcommunityhastooffertoguidetheirdeliberations.Thispaperaimstodothisratherthantoadvocateparticularpolicypositionsonglobalservicesliberalisation.

b.NatureofServices

ThepaperbeginsbycharacterizingservicesasamajorityofactivityformostOECDeconomies（asmeasuredbyemployment,andbyvalueaddedoriginating）,andasmallerbutstilllargeportionofactivityforpoorerdevelopingcountries.Itsuggeststhatso-called‘core’servicescanbestbethoughtof（seeMelvin,1989）asrelatingtointermediationthroughtime（banking,insurance）orspace（telecoms,transportation,retailing,wholesaling）,withawiderangeofdiverseadditionalserviceitemsmakingupthebalanceofwhatmostpeoplerefertoasservices（tourism,consultingservices,governmentservices,utilities）.Thisdiverserangeofactivitiesistypicallytreatedinquantitativestudiesasasinglehomogeneousentity,frequentlylabeledasservicesforanalyticalconvenience,wheninfactitsheterogeneitysuggestsadifferenttreatmentforeach.Thisheterogeneityis,inmyview,keytobetterunderstandinghowservicestradeliberalisationcouldaffectpoorercountries.

c.ImpactsofLiberalisationonPoorerCountries

Thereisageneralpresumptioninthepoorercountriesthattheywilllosefromglobalservicestradeliberalisationsincetheirdomesticserviceindustriesareinefficientandnon-competitive.Thisviewisdespitetheargumentsfromeconomistsastothegainstodomesticconsumersfromlowerpricesandthejointbenefitswhichaccruetobothexportingandimportingcountriesfromexploitingcomparativeadvantageandimprovedmarketaccessopportunitiesabroad.Itisalsodespitethecommonlyheldviewthattheproductionofmanyservicesarelaborintensive,whicheconomistsbelieveshouldbethesourceofcomparativeadvantageforpoorerdevelopingcountriesinservicesprovision.ThereunfortunatelyappeartobefewifanystudiesoftherelativeinefficiencyoflocalversusForeignServiceprovidersindevelopingcountryservicemarketswhichallowthestrengthoftheseargumentstobeevaluatedonempiricalgrounds.

Thiscautiontowardsglobalservicestradeliberalisationinthedevelopingworldseemstoreflecttwoconcerns.Oneisthegeneralassumptioninthedevelopingworldthatanyfuturenegotiatedgloballiberalisationofservicestradewillbelargelyonesidedintheresultsitwillyield.TheirbeliefisthatifnewWTOmultilateral（orevenregional）servicesliberalisationisnegotiated,developedcountryserviceproviderswilllikelygainsignificantlyimprovedaccesstodevelopingcountryservicemarkets,buttheconverse（significantlyimprovedaccessfordevelopingcountryserviceproviderstodevelopedcountryservicemarkets）willlikelynothappen.Asymmetryinnegotiatingpowerisonereasoncitedforthispossibleoutcome.ThepresumptionisthatthepresentregulatorystructureformostservicemarketsegmentswillremaininplaceinOECDcountries,andfewsignificantimprovementsinaccesstodevelopedcountrymarketsfordevelopingcountryserviceproviderswilloccur.Thisoutcome,forinstance,isreflectedinrecentUSbilateralagreements,includingtheUS-Chileagreement.

Inreality,throughtheprocessofongoingregulatoryreformintheOECD,changesareinfactbeingmadeinmarketaccessarrangementsfordevelopingcountryserviceproviders,thoughthesearenotnecessarilyreflectedinscheduledcommitmentsinGATSintheWTO.AnotherimportantandneglecteddimensiontothisconclusionisSouth-Southtrade,andthepotentialthatdevelopingcountrieshavemuchtogainfromliberalisationofmarketsinotherdevelopingcountries.Thepointisthatintermsofmodel-based（orquantitative）evaluationsoftheimpactsofservicestradeliberalisation,weregenuinetw