Lecture 4 Parts of the Soul 2.docx

Lecture 4 Parts of the Soul 2.docx

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Lecture4PartsoftheSoul2

Chapter1.SamplingBias抽样偏误

ProfessorTamarGendler:

SowhatIwouldlikeyoutodoistoanswerthefollowingquestion.“Doyouhave…?

”–Oh,nowwaitasecond–thissayspollingclosed.Let’sseewhetherwecangetpollingclosed.Let’sseewhetherwecangetpollingtoopen.“Doyou…?

”–No,thatdidn’twork.Oh,thisisthemostdesperatelyhorriblethingthatI’veeverhadhappen.OK.Currentslide.I’vehadhorriblethingshappenthatareworsethanthis,I’msorry.Idon’twanttobelittleallthereallyhorriblethingsthathaveeverhappenedtome.

OK.Solet’stryagain.Clickpracticalitiesblahblah.OK.“Doyouhaveaclickeryet?

Pollingisopen.”OK.Andthere’stensecondsleft.You’llseethislittletimeline.Eight,seven,six,five,four–nightytwoofyou,somanyofyouhaveclickers.OK.Let’sseewhatwelearned.Itlookslike97%ofyouhaveclickers.

Now,Iactuallybeganwiththisexercisetomakeapointaboutpsychologicalresearch.Wejustmadeaclassicanddangerousmistake,amistakeknownassamplingbias.Weusedameasurewhichdoesn’tgiveusaccurateinformationaboutwhatwewanttofindout.Wewantedtofindout,whatpercentageofpeopleintheroomhadclickers.Andwhatwefoundoutinsteadwas,whatpercentageofpeopleintheroomwithclickershadcickers.Idon’tknowwhoyougugsare.

Thiserrorisanincrediblydangerousone,anditcouldhavepersisted.SupposeIthenaskyouaquestionwhetheryou’refromclass2014,`13,`12,or`11,anddiscoveredthat80%ofyouwerefreshmanandsophomores.There,again,Iwouldinheritedexactlythesamplingbiaserrorthatwejustobserved.Freshmenandsophomoreshavehandedintheirschedulesalready.Consequently,they’recertainaboutwhatclassesthey’retaking.Consequently,they’remorelikelytohaveclickersalready.

Sowhenwedopsychologicalempiricalresearch,weneedtobeextraordinarilycarefulthatthemeansbywhichwearechoosingsubjectsforexperimentsare,infact,meansthatgiveusanaccuratesampleofwhatitisthatwe’reinterestedin.

AnarticleappearedrecentlyinthejournalBehavioralandBrainSciencewiththetitle,“TheWeirdestPeopleintheWorld”.And“WEIRD”herestandsforWestern,educated,industrialized,rich,anddemocratic.Thatis,Amerciancollegestudents.PeoplewithaccesstoonlineInternetpolling.Andwhatthearticlearguedwasthatagreatdealofpsychologicalresearchthatclaimstomakegeneralassumptions,theclaimstoprovegeneralassumptionsabouthumannature,isbiasedinexactlythewaymypollconcerningwhatpercentageofyouhaveclickerswasbiased.Itlooksatasmallsampleofthepopulation,thosewhoarereadilyavailabletoresearchlaboratoriesonuniversitycampuses,forexample,thepsychintroductorypschpool.Anditbasesitsconclusionsabouthumannatureonthatsample.

Throughoutthesemesterweneedtobeattentive,whenwereadpsychologicalstudieswhicharemakingclaimsabouthumannature,tothefactthatitispossiblethatsomeofthethingswhichwearetoldapplytohumanbeingsingeneralinsteadhaveatleastbeingshownconclusivelyonlytoapplytoWEIRDfolk.Western,educated,industrialized,rich,anddemocratic.Andincertaincases,thedatawouldlookverydifferentifwelookedatadifferentpupulation.

Thisisalsothecaseintheclassicaltextsweused.TheprocessthatPlatoandAristotletookonforthemselvesdidn’tlookexperimentalinthewaythatexperimentalpsychologylooksexperimental.Buttheylookedatasampleofpeoplearoundthem,andonthebasisoftheirexperience,theydrewconclusionsabouthumannature.

SolittlereminderofsomethingthatIsaidinthefirstlecturethatsometimesgetslost.Insomeways,thisisaclassaboutphilosophyandthescienceofhumannature.Andinotherways,thisisaclassaboutWesternphilosophyandthescienceofWesternhumannature.Andweneedtobeattentivetothatwhenitbecomesrelevant.

Chapter2.DualProcessingAccountsofCognitionandtheWasonSelectionTask

SowhatIwanttodointoday’slectureistoreturntotheissuethatwetookuplastclass,whichistheissueaboutthemulti-partnatureofthehumansoul.Andyou’llrecallthatinthelastlecture,wewereintroducedtoPlato’sgreatanalogyofreason,spiritandappetite,asexemplifiedbycharioteer,acalmhorseandawildhorse.Andalsotoanumberofotherdistinctions.Leftbrain,rightbrain,whichImanagedtogetwrongfourtimesinarow,ifIremembercorrectly.Wewereintroducedtothedifferencebetweenbrainstemandupperbrain.WewerebrieflyintroducedtoFreud’sideaofsuperego,egoandid.Butwedidn’tgettoworkinthedualprocessingtradition.Andtoday’slecturewilltakewherethelastlectureleftoff,withanotherwayinwhichitistypicaltodistinguishpartsofthesoul.

LetmesaythatthereisverygoodreasontothinkthattheresearchwhichI’mpresentingtodayisnotsujecttotheWEIRDobjection.Thatis,therehavebeenpowerfulcross-culturaldemonstrationsofnearlyalltheresultswhichI’llbetalkingabouttoday.Andtherearealsogoodevolutionaryreasonstothinkthatthetwosystemswhichdualsystemstheoristspoistare,infact,goingtobepartofanyhumanbeingbecauseoftheevolutionaryprocess,whichallofusunderwent.

SoIwantedtostartwithapictureofEdwardThorndikenotbecausehe’simportant,butjustbecausehe’ssofabulous-looking.ThisisfromtheNewYorkPublicLibraryArchive.EdwardThorndikewasalatenineteenth/earlytwentiethcenturypsychologistwhodidalotofimportantassociationistanimalwork.Buthealsodidresearch,publishedinanarticlein1922,thatinsomewayscanbeseenasthefoundingworkofthereasoningtraditionthatJonathanEvansdescribedinthearticlethatwereadforlastclass.

Sohedescribes,inhis1922article,anexperimentthathedoes,whichisentitled“TheEffectofChangedDataUponResoning.”Andwhathe’sinterestedinthereisthequestionofwhetherproblemsthatareposedtopeoplethatareformallyidentical,butthatdifferinhowthatformalmaterialispresented,areprocesseddifferently.

So,forexample,heaskedpeople,eitherwhatisthesquareofxplusy,（first,outer,inner,last,Ithinkishowyouwoulddoit）andheaskedpeople,whatisthesquareofb1plusb2?

Whereaspeoplefoundthefirstquestioneasy,theyfoundthesecondquestionmuchmoredifficult.Successratesonthis[x/y]wereuparound90%.Successratesonthis[b1/b2wereconsiderablylower.Orheaskedthem,What’sthesquareofa²x³,versuswhat’sthesquareofr1下8上r11下2上？

Andsoon.Presentingpeoplewithproblemthatwereformallyidenticalbutwhichdifferedintermsofthecomplexityofthecharactersusedtorepresentthemproducedamassivedecrement（缩减）inperformance.

Fast-forwardtoaperiodinthe1906s,`70s,and`80s,inwhichpeoplebegantostudysyllogistic（三段论法的，演绎的）reasoning,andanumberofspecialintancesofthisphenomenonemerge.SointheJonathanEvanspiecethatyoureadforlastclass,youwerepresentedwithexampleslikethis.Asyllogismthatwasvalidandbelievable–thatis,whoseformalpropertiesguaranteedthatifthepremisesweretrue,theconclusionwasture,andasamatteroffactconclusionwastrue.Andargumentsthatwerevalidbutunbelievable–argumentswherethestructureoftheargumentguaranteedthatifthepremisesweretrue,theconclusionwasture,butwheretheconclusionwasfalse.

So,forexample,youmightbetold:

NoGreektragediesarecomedies.SomeGreekcomediesareplays.AndaskedwhetheritfollowedfromthatthatsomeGreekplaysarenotGreektragedies.NoGreektragediesarecomedies,someGreekplaysarecomedies,therefore,someGreekplaysarenotGreekplaysarenotGreektragedies,and90%ofpeoplewereabletoseethatargumentwasvalid.

Bycontrast,youmightbegivenanargument,equallyvalid,butwithanunbelievaleconclusion;like:

NoRussiannovelsareshort.SomenovelsbyDostoevskyareshort.,Therefore,somenovelsbyDostoevskyarenotRussiannovels.That’savalidargument.It’savalidargument.It’savalidargumentwithafalseconclusion,becauseoneofthepremisesisfalse.Butasaresultoftheconclusionbeingimplausible,only55%ofpeoplewereabletorecognizethattheconclusionfollowedfromthepremises.

Notice,however,thatthesetwoargumentsarestructurallyidentical.Theybothhaveaform,noA’sareB’s,someC’sareB’s,therefore,someC’sarenotA’s.Formakpropertiesalonedon’tdetermineourabilitytojudgevalidity.And,infact,itisalsotruethatformalpropertiesalonedon’tdetermineourabilitytojudgeinvalidity.

Sowhereasvalidargumentswithplausibleconclusionsarejudgedtobevalidroughly90%ofthetime,wejustheardthatvalidargumentswithimplausibleconclusionsarejudgedtobevalidconsiderablylessoften.Anoppositeerrorarisesinthecaseofinvalidarguments.Invalidargumentswithplausibleconclusionarejudgedtobevalid.It’sjudgedtobethecasethattheformoftheargumentguaranteesthetruthoftheconclusion.Whereasitturnsoutthatwhatguranteesthetruthoftheconclusion,inthatcase,isnothingotherthanfactsabouttheworld,asopposedtofactsaboutthestructureoftheargument.

InlightofthisThorndikeancondition,researcherafterresearchercameupwithresearchparadigmsthatdemonstratedwhatwe’vejustbeentalkingabout.So,famously,theWasonselectiontaskaskspeopletodeterminewhichoffourcardstheyneedtoturnovertoverifythetruthofastatement.

So,forexample,Imightgiveyoastatement,“ifthere’sanAontheoneside,there‘sathreeontheother.”AndImightpresenty