FDI在发展中国家的决定因素分析毕业论文外文文献翻译.docx
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FDI在发展中国家的决定因素分析毕业论文外文文献翻译
毕业论文外文翻译
外文题目:
AnalysesofFDIdeterminantsindevelopingcountries
出处:
Economics.2009(36):
105-123.
作者:
RecepKok,BernurAcikgozErsoy
原文:
AnalysesofFDIdeterminantsindevelopingcountries
RecepKok,BernurAcikgozErsoy
ABSTRACT
Purpose:
Thepurposeofthispaperistoinvestigatethebestdeterminantsofforeigndirectinvestment(FDI)indevelopingcountries.
Design/methodology/approach:
ThispaperinvestigateswhetherFDIdeterminantsaffectFDIbasedonbothapanelofdata(FMOLS-fullymodifiedOLS)andcross-sectionSUR(seeminglyunrelatedregression)for24developingcountries,overtheperiod1983-2005forFMOLSand1976-2005forcross-sectionSUR.
Findings:
TheinteractionofFDIwithsomeFDIdeterminantshaveastrongpositiveeffectoneconomicprogressindevelopingcountries,whiletheinteractionofFDIwiththetotaldebtservice/GDPandinflationhaveanegativeimpact.ThemostimportantdeterminantofFDIisthecommunicationvariable.
Keyword
FDIdevelopingcountrydeterminant
1.Introduction
Tradehastraditionallybeentheprincipalmechanismlinkingnationaleconomiesinordertocreateaninternationaleconomy.FDIisasimilarmechanismlinkingnationaleconomies;therefore,thesetwomechanismsreinforceeachother.ThetradeeffectsofFDIdependonwhetheritisundertakentogainaccesstonaturalresources,toconsumermarketsorwhethertheFDIisaimedatexploitinglocationalcomparativeadvantageorotherstrategicassetssuchasresearchanddevelopmentcapabilities.MostdevelopingcountrieslacktechnologycapabilityandFDItofacilitatetechnologytransferandreducethetechnologygap(TGAP)betweendevelopingcountriesanddevelopedcountries.Infact,itissuggestedthatspilloversortheexternaleffectsfromFDIarethemostsignificantchannelsforthedisseminationofmoderntechnology(Blomstrom,1989).
FDIhasinnumerableothereffectsonthehostcountry'seconomy.Itinfluencestheincome,production,prices,employment,economicgrowth,developmentandgeneralwelfareoftherecipientcountry.Itisalsoprobablyoneofthemostsignificantfactorsleadingtotheglobalizationoftheinternationaleconomy.Thus,theenormousincreaseinFDIflowsacrosscountriesisoneoftheclearestsignsoftheglobalizationoftheworldeconomyoverthepast20years(UNCTAD,2006).Therefore,wecanconcludethatFDIisakeyingredientforsuccessfuleconomicgrowthindevelopingcountries,becausetheveryessenceofeconomicdevelopmentistherapidandefficienttransferandadoptionof“bestpractice”acrossborders.
Ontheotherhand,ingeneral,foreigninvestorsareinfluencedbythreebroadgroupsoffactors:
Theprofitabilityoftheprojects.
Theeasewithwhichsubsidiaries'operationscanbeintegratedintoinvestors'globalstrategies.
Theoverallqualityofthehostcountry'senablingenvironment.
AlargenumberofstudieshavebeenconductedtoidentifythedeterminantsofFDIbutnoconsensushasemerged,inthesensethatthereisnowidelyacceptedsetofexplanatoryvariablesthatcanberegardedasthe“true”determinantsofFDI.TheresultsproducedbystudiesofFDIaretypicallysensitivetothesefactors,indicatingalackofrobustness.Forexample,factorssuchaslaborcosts,tradebarriers,tradebalance,exchangerate,R&DandtaxhavebeenfoundtohavebothnegativeandpositiveeffectsonFDI.Chakrabarti(2001)concludesthat“therelationbetweenFDIandmanyofthecontroversialvariables(namely,tax,wages,openness,exchangerate,tariffs,growthandtradebalance)arehighlysensitivetosmallalterationsintheconditioninginformationset”.
Theimportantquestionis“Whydocompaniesinvestabroad?
”Dunning(1993)developedhistheorybysynthesizingthepreviouslypublishedtheories,becauseexistingexplanationscouldnotfullyjustifytheexistenceofFDI.AccordingtoDunning,internationalproductionistheresultofaprocessaffectedbyownership,internalizationandlocalizationadvantages.
Thelatteristhemostimportant:
thefactorsbasedonwhichaninvestorselectsalocationforaproject.Theseincludethefactorsaffectingtheavailabilityoflocalinputssuchasnaturalresources,thesizeofthemarket,geographicallocation,thepositionoftheeconomy,theculturalandpoliticalenvironment,factorprices,transportcostsandcertainelementsoftheeconomicpolicyofthegovernment(tradepolicy,industrialpolicy,budgetpolicy,taxpolicy,etc.).
2.ThedeterminantsofFDI:
theoryandevidence
FDIhasbeenregardedinthelastdecadesasaneffectivechanneltotransfertechnologyandfostergrowthindevelopingcountries.Thispointofviewvividlycontrastswiththecommonbeliefthatwasacceptedinsomeacademicandpoliticalspheresinthe1950sand1960s,accordingtowhichFDIwasharmfulfortheeconomicperformanceoflessdevelopedcountries.ThetheoreticaldiscussionthatpermeatedpartofthedevelopmenteconomicsofthesecondhalfofthetwentiethcenturyhasbeenapproachedfromanewangleonthelightoftheNewGrowthTheory.Thus,themodelsbuiltinthisnovelframeworkprovideaninterestingbackgroundinordertostudythecorrelationbetweenFDIandthegrowthrateofGDP(CalvoandRobles,2003).
Intheneoclassicalgrowthmodeltechnologicalprogressandlaborgrowthareexogenous,inwardFDImerelyincreasestheinvestmentrate,leadingtoatransitionalincreaseinpercapitaincomegrowthbuthasnolong-rungrowtheffect(HsiaoandHsiao,2006).Thenewgrowththeoryinthe1980sendogenizestechnologicalprogressandFDIhasbeenconsideredtohavepermanentgrowtheffectinthehostcountrythroughtechnologytransferandspillover.ThereisongoingdiscussionontheimpactofFDIonahostcountryeconomy,ascanbeseenfromrecentsurveysoftheliterature(DeMello,1997,1999;Fan,2002;Lim,2001).
Accordingtotheneoclassicalgrowththeorymodel,FDIdoesnotaffectthelong-termgrowthrate.Thisisunderstandableifweconsidertheassumptionsofthemodel,namely:
constanteconomiesofscale,decreasingmarginalproductsofinputs,positivesubstitutionelasticityofinputsandperfectcompetition(Sass,2003).Withintheframeworkoftheneo-classicalmodels(Solow,1956),theimpactofFDIonthegrowthrateofoutputwasconstrainedbytheexistenceofdiminishingreturnsinthephysicalcapital.Therefore,FDIcouldonlyexertaleveleffectontheoutputpercapita,butnotarateeffect.Inotherwords,itwasunabletoalterthegrowthrateofoutputinthelongrun(CalvoandRobles,2003).
Asaconsequence,ofendogenousgrowththeory,FDIhasanewly-perceivedpotentialroleinthegrowthprocess(Bende-NabendeandFord,1998).InthecontextoftheNewTheoryofEconomicGrowth,however,FDImayaffectnotonlythelevelofoutputpercapitabutalsoitsrateofgrowth.ThisliteraturehasdevelopedvarioushypothesesthatexplainwhyFDImaypotentiallyenhancethegrowthrateofpercapitaincomeinthehostcountry(CalvoandRobles,2003).However,theendogenousgrowththeory,whichdispenseswiththeassumptionofperfectcompetition,leavesmorescopefortheimpactofFDIongrowth.Inthistheoreticalframework,investment,includingFDI,affectstherateofgrowththroughresearchanddevelopment(R&D)orthroughitsimpactonhumancapital.Evenifthereturnoninvestmentisdeclining,FDImayinfluencegrowththroughexternalities.
Particularly,FDIdisplacesdomesticsavings(Papanek,1973;Cohen,1993;ReinhartandTalvi,1998).Inaseminalpaper,Papanek(1973)showedthesignificantnegativeimpactsofdifferenttypesofcapitalonnationalsavings.Basedonasampleof85developingcountries,Papanekfoundthatforeigncapitaldisplaceddomesticsavings.Specifically,heshowedthatforeignaid,privateinvestmentandothercapitalcrowdedoutnationalsavings,andareductionindomesticsavingscouldleadtofurtherincreaseonthedependencyonforeigncapital(BaharumshahandThanoon,2006).
Anotherdeterminant,tariffs,hasapositiveeffectonFDIiftheyarecombinedwiththegrowthrateandopenness,buttheyproduceanegativeeffectwhencombinedwithwages.Therealexchangerateproducesapositiveeffectwhenitiscombinedwithopenness,domesticinvestmentandgovernmentconsumption.Whendomesticinvestmentisexcluded,theeffectbecomesnegative.
Thissupportstheargumentthatanefficientenvironmentthatcomeswithmoreopennesstotradeislikelytoattractforeignfirms.ThisconclusionisalsosupportedbyAsiedu(2002)andEdwards(1990).Inthismodel,investmenttaxandwageshaveanegativeimpactonFDI,whileinfrastructureandmarketsizehaveasignificantlypositiveimpactonFDI.Generally,onlyinthecaseofexportorientedFDI,cheaplaborintermsoflowerwagesworksasanincentive(WheelerandMody,1992).OntheotherhandTomiura'(2003)studyconfirmsthatthepositiveassociationbetweenFDIandR&DisrobusteveniffirmsundertakingnoFDIand/ornoR&Dareincluded.Inthisrespect,MorckandYeung(1991)hypothesizeandprovideevidencethatFDIcreateswealthwhenanexpandingfirmpossessesintangibleassets,suchassuperiorproductionandmanagementskills,marketingexpertise,patentsandconsumergoodwill.
3.Datadefinition
TheindicatorstestedinthisstudyareselectedonthebasisofFDItheoriesandpreviousempiricalliterature.Theindicatorstestedinthepanelstudyandcross-sectionSUR,aretheFDIdeterminantsforwhichthedatahavebeenfoundfordevelopingcountriesforatleast30years.Datasetsrelatedtoanumberofdevelopingcountriesaresometimesdiscontinuousforsomevariables(i.e.notavailableforall30years).ForthatreasonwhiledefiningthemaindeterminantsofFDIi